Statistical Betting Model
We continue the series of articles that tell us about the principles of automated forecasting. Today, it will be more about the theory — about the methods of statistical analysis. We tried to write about a relatively complex topic in simple language.
Methods of statistical analysis are based on the study of various statistical data, that is, the aggregate of any objects (situations, cases) and inherent characteristics. For sports, the objects of statistics will be individual players, sports competitions, bets. And their variable characteristics are separate qualities that can vary depending on the time or kind of the object. Investigating objects and inherent features, one can distinguish patterns that allow predicting the behavior of these objects with some accuracy in the future. Therefore, statistical methods play an important role in determining winning bets for sports events. Analysis of statistical data in sports is based on the study of tournament tables, previous results of players / teams, existing forecasts, bets, etc.
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- Sports betting systems are sets of events that when combined for a particular game for a particular sport represent a profitable betting scenario. Since sports betting involves humans, there is no deterministic edge to the house or the gambler. Systems supposedly allow the gambler to have an edge.
What methods of statistical analysis can be used for forecast of bets?
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The simplest methods of analysis can be used even by beginners, for example, to conduct an elementary assessment of the results of previous matches. So, if team A in 90% of cases defeated team B, then it is likely that she will win it in the next match. But it is not always possible to make a working forecast without analyzing a large number of heterogeneous data.
Statistical connections in practice are much more complicated: changing just one factor in the present time sometimes entails a change in a number of other factors. In sports betting, the most commonly used methods of mathematical statistics, which are the most accurate and allow for several parameters. Usually, various services or computer programs are used for calculations. The accuracy of the mathematical analysis depends on the latitude of the sample — the more data is available for analysis (for example, the greater number of matches or bets), the more accurate the forecast will be.
In the forecasting of sports betting, the following methods of mathematical statistics are borrowed in whole or in part:
- Correlation — the identification of the relationship between different data. Allows you to calculate the correlation coefficient — the quantitative relationship between two (and more) events / factors. If it is greater than 1, then the facts are interrelated.
- Regression — the dependence of some factors on the others is calculated as a function, with its help and forecasting is carried out.
- Dispersion — study of the significance of differences in mean values for the detection of dependencies. Simply put, the study of the influence of independent variables (data that can’t be influenced) on the dependent variable (the bet value).
- Factor — the identification of various relationships between a large number of initial data and patterns (factors) that make it possible to identify important.
- There are other methods of mathematical analysis. Mathematical statistics are quite accurate, since it operates with exact figures, although it does not take into account non-fixed, subjective indicators (for example, player fatigue after a series of matches, etc.).
Methods of mathematical statistics in practice
The algorithm for obtaining a mathematical forecast can be presented in the following simplified form: first, an analysis of the indicators that affect the team / player rating or the winning bet is selected, then they are analyzed in terms of importance and degree of influence. Based on the analysis, a mathematical model is formed, its accuracy and the presence of errors in the calculation are estimated. As a result, we can draw conclusions about the outcome of the sporting event and the success of the bets.
As examples of application of mathematical statistics in practice, the following calculations can be cited:
- A mathematical expectation is the calculation of the average probable win or loss. This probability is calculated by analyzing the same bets for similar sporting events. MO is considered according to the following formula: multiply the possible gain by its probability and subtract from the amount received the possible loss (the amount of the bet) multiplied by its probability. It is important to make bets only if the MO size exceeds the zero value.
- Predictability strategies — to determine the most favorable bet, the estimated match score obtained after analyzing the statistics is used.
- Calculation of variance — calculation of the deviation from the mathematical expectation. Dispersion can be associated with a small amount of data — the smaller the sample, the higher the probability of deviation from the true value of the math expectations. So, there is more risk of error and loss.
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We are a group of people passionate about football.
We are a group of people passionate about football betting.
In 2010 we created goldenbet.com website in order to help betting players have all chances in their favor.
Ever since, hundreds of thousands of players all around the world have surrounded us with love and trusted our betting forecasts. Our community is vastly expanding.
You will not find the usual prognostic data here.
Our team of experts uses a unique model based on statistics, physics and mathematics to analyze the betting games and present the prognostic data on a daily basis.
GOLDENBET’s statistical model has been tested in a huge number of football games, presents consistent results and therefore guarantees high revenues.
The rates per day may present related variations, however the monthly and annual average always remain at high levels.
The GOLDENBET team has one goal, to help the professional or amateur player with the advantages provided by our special statistical model.
Our analyses provide statistical advantages to the players; however, it goes without saying that the final decisions and strategies implemented by them are their sole responsibility.
For more information, please read the conditions of use carefully.
OUR PHILOSOPHY AND THE ADVANTAGES OF THE STATISTICAL MODEL
We need to point out that football prognostic data is a very difficult task as in football, more than any other sport, the element of surprise awaits.
We believe that betting needs to be dealt with the utmost importance: there are no gurus,or absolute success.
However, statistics is a powerful tool that cannot be ignored as it can be used as a precious “compass” as to where the scales of every game will tip and maximize the chances of success.
That is what we offer you here!
GOLDENBET' s statistical model has the particularity of highlighting the dangers hiding in several games that are marked No Bet and Risky on the one hand, and, on the other hand, choosing the games where one of the teams has the odds in its favour (Value, Gold).
We have to say again that our prognostic data are one of a kind.
The stronger football teams do not always win just as the weak ones do not always lose.
We can track the catch at a very high level. Using our statistic model we do not only point out the opportunities but also the games to be avoided, the ones with very high betting risks.
Mark that GOLDENBET’s statistic model constitutes intellectual property of GOLDENBET. Therefore the methodology implied is secret and not notified.
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With every day presentation of the statistic model' s performance, the visitors can make their own judgments on who deduces the best prognostic data.
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NOTES
1. The GOLDENBET model is purely statistical and mathematical based on specific constants and does not provide the possibility of aggregation of independent variables that may alter the image of the game.
Such variables may be a red card and the incurring numerical predominance of one time, the injury of a key player, arbitration errors, specific weather conditions, etc.
2. The high rates of verification refer to the points bearing the symbols GOLD and VALUE and not to the points bearing the symbol RISKY.
Symbols
According to the special statistical model of GOLDENBET, marks indicated by the symbol GOLD, have a possibility of verification higher than 80%.
According to the special statistical model of GOLDENBET, marks indicated by the symbol VALUE, have a possibility of verification higher than 70%.
According to the special statistical model of GOLDENBET, marks indicated by the symbol RISKY, have an increased possibility of unexpected results.
Football Betting Statistical Models
According to the special statistical model of GOLDENBET, marks indicated by the symbol NO BET, either present an increased balance of possibilities or a strong possibility of surprise, related to the returns.
Sports Betting Statistical Models
The GoldenBet Team